Among
the three network laws, the one that makes the most sense to me is
Sarnoff's Law. Although it is a very simplified explanation for
understanding of the network value, I assume that it can be applied
to complex situations as well. Sarnoff's Law might seem outdated
since it was used to observe the value of broadcast network like TV
and radio. It claims that the value of a network will increase
linearly with the proportion of users. To give an example, if the
value of a broadcast network with 1 user is 10 USD, the broadcast
network with 10 users will worth 100 USD. I think that, the value of
Facebook or Twitter could be seen in the same way. Of course, they
are not broadcast networks where the communication occurs between one
and many, but still we could observe the value of these social
networks in terms of the amount of users they have. The
simplification of this law could help build the media plans easily
even for today, because broadcasting network hasn't completely
replaced yet.
However,
when we look at the other two laws -Reed's and Metcalfe- it is obvious
that they provide more complicated perspectives to the calculation of
network value. Since these two laws can be applied to digital
networks, they might seem more useful than Sarnoff's Law. Despite
that, there are some basic flaws we can find in these laws. Reed's
Law suggests that every new user doubles the value of the network. If
we think how many people today use digital networks, after some
point, Reed's Law gives us incredible numbers which is impossible to
be accurate. If it was correct, most of the networks would be
incalculably rich after getting a few more users. Considering
Metcalfe, if the network value truly increased by n2 , it would be extremely profitable when the two companies merge. Then, there wouldn't be any small network which isn't true in today's world.
I don't think that in five years, the way people get their information would considerably change. Technological devices will probably have more interesting qualities, but still we will use the same networks maybe with different methods. Even now, many people talk to their phones when they want to search something, rather than typing. I don't think that traditional ways would disappear completely since there are still many people rejecting to use smart phones or reading news online. Thus, our methods of using the same ways of getting informations might change with the development of the technology, but on the surface, we would still be using the same networks.